UC Davis Agricultural and Resource Economics

Research

Here, I list selected recent papers under four different topics: (i) Energy, (ii) Finance and Commodities, (iii) Agriculture, and (iv) Other.

For a complete list of my papers, see my CV or my Google scholar page


Energy


  1. WORKING PAPER Food vs. Fuel? Impacts of Petroleum Shipments on Agricultural Prices (with James Bushnell and Jonathan Hughes), October 2017.
  2. WORKING PAPER Residential Building Codes Do Save Energy: Evidence From Hourly Smart-Meter Data (with Kevin Novan and Tianxia Zhou), June 2017.
  3. The Incentive to Overinvest in Energy Efficiency: Evidence From Hourly Smart-Meter Data(with Kevin Novan), Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 5(3):577-605, 2017.
  4. WORKING PAPER RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals (with Sebastien Pouliot and James H. Stock), February 2017.
  5. Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard (with Gabriel Lade and Cynthia Lin-Lawell), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(3):707-731, 2018.
  6. Designing Climate Policy: Lessons from the Renewable Fuel Standard and the Blend Wall, (with Gabriel Lade and Cynthia Lin-Lawell, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(2):585-599, 2018.
  7. Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies(with Colin Carter and Gordon Rausser), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(4): 1027-1055, 2017.
  8. Cars on Crutches: How Much Abatement Do Smog Check Repairs Actually Provide? (with Pierre Mérel, Jeffrey Williams, and Emily Wimberger), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 67(3): 371-395, 2014.
  9. Ethanol Production and Gasoline Prices: A Spurious Correlation, (with Christopher Knittel), Energy Journal, 36(1), 2015, Computer Code for ReplicationData set I for replication,Data set II for replication. 
  10. Efficiency of the California Electricity Reserves Market, (with Konstantinos Metaxoglou), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(6): 1127-1144, 2007.

Finance and Commodities


  1. WORKING PAPER Do Speculators Drive Commodity Prices Away From Supply and Demand Fundamentals?(with Raymond P.H. Fishe), April 2018.
  2. Commodity Price Comovement and Financial Speculation: The Case of Cotton (with Joseph P. Janzen and Colin A. Carter), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(1): 264-285, 2018. Appendix
  3. Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic Tilting (with Konstantinos Metaxoglou and Davide Pettenuzzo) Journal of Financial Econometrics, forthcoming 2018. Appendix.
  4. Forecasting Stock Returns Using Option-Implied State Prices(with Konstantinos Metaxoglou), Journal of Financial Econometrics, 15(3): 427-473, 2017
  5. WORKING PAPER How Could We Have Been So Wrong? The Puzzle of Disappointing Returns to Commodity Investments (with Scott Main, Scott Irwin, and Dwight Sanders, November 2016)
  6. State Prices of Conditional Quantiles: New Evidence on Time Variation in the Pricing Kernel (with Konstantinos Metaxoglou), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32(1):192-217, 2017. Appendix.
  7. Futures Market Failure? (with Philip Garcia and Scott Irwin), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97(1):40-64, 2015, Appendix, Winner: AAEA Quality of Research Discovery Award Summary in Amber Waves MagazineWinner: AAEA Quality of Communication Award
  8. WORKING PAPER Prospectus Words, Parts of Speech, and Uncertainty in IPO Pricing(with Raymond P. H. Fishe and David North, September 2015)
  9. Hedging and Speculative Trading in Agricultural Futures Markets (with Raymond Fishe and Joseph Janzen)American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(2):542-556, 2014. Winner: EAAE Quality of Research Discovery Award
  10. Identifying Informed Traders in Futures Markets, (with Raymond P.H. Fishe), Journal of Financial Markets, 15(3):329-359, 2012. 
  11. Commodity Booms and Busts, (with Colin Carter and Gordon Rausser), Annual Review of Resource Economics, 3: 87-118, 2011.
  12. Partially Overlapping Time Series: A New Model for Volatility Dynamics in Commodity FuturesJournal of Applied Econometrics, 20(3): 405-422, 2005.

Agriculture


  1. “A Century of U.S. Farm Productivity Growth: A Surge Then a Slowdown,” (with Matthew A. Andersen, Julian M. Alston, and Philip G. Pardey), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming 2018.
  2. WORKING PAPER Food vs. Fuel? Impacts of Petroleum Shipments on Agricultural Prices (with James Bushnell and Jonathan Hughes), October 2017.
  3. Commodity Price Comovement and Financial Speculation: The Case of Cotton (with Joseph P. Janzen and Colin A. Carter), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(1): 264-285, 2018. Appendix
  4. Effects of Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies on Crop Acreage(with Jisang Yu and Daniel Sumner), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(1): 91-114, 2018. Appendix
  5. Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies(with Colin Carter and Gordon Rausser), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(4): 1027-1055, 2017.
  6. Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary? (with Nathan Hendricks and Joseph Janzen), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97(1): 22-39, 2015.
  7. Weather-Induced Crop Shocks and Inter-Hemispheric Supply Responses: Implications for the Effects of Climate Change on Food Markets (with Travis Lybbert and Daniel Sumner), Climate Change Economics, 5(4), 2014.
  8. Crop Supply Dynamics and the Illusion of Partial Adjustment, (with Nathan P. Hendricks and Daniel A. Sumner), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(5):1469-1491, 2014. Winner: AJAE Outstanding Paper Award Appendix
  9. Hedging and Speculative Trading in Agricultural Futures Markets (with Raymond Fishe and Joseph Janzen)American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(2):542-556, 2014. Winner: EAAE Quality of Research Discovery Award
  10. Does speculation cause high food prices? (a comment on "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC’s Daily Large Trader Data Files" by Nicole M. Aulerich, Scott H. Irwin, and Philip Garcia, prepared for NBER volume on "The Economics of Food Price Volatility", 2014)
  11. Estimating the Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn, (with Colin Carter), Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(3): 522-533, 2007Winner: AAEA Quality of Research Discovery Award

Other


  1. A Time Series Paradox: Unit Root Tests Perform Poorly When Data are Cointegrated (with W. Robert Reed), Economics Letters, 151:71-74, 2017
  2. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, energy balance, and weight gain (with Joanna Parks and Julian Alston) Food Policy, 61, May 2016
  3. Grouped Coefficients to Reduce Bias in Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Models with Small T (with Nathan Hendricks), Applied Economics, 47(40):4335-4348, 2015 appendix.
  4. WORKING PAPER Quantifying Obesity in Economic Research: How Misleading is the Body Mass Index? (with Joanna Parks and Julian Alston, January 2014)
  5. Markov Breaks in Regression ModelsJournal of Time Series Econometrics, 4(1): Article 3, 2012. 
  6. Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence, (with Prasad Naik and Chih-Ling Tsai), Journal of Econometrics, 134(2): 553-577, 2006. 
  7. Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time SeriesJournal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23(3): 321-335, 2005.
  8. Stochastic Permanent Breaks, (with Robert Engle), Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4): 553-574, 1999.

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