Christian Wolf, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
What Can Time-Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?
Date and Location
Friday, November 4, 2022, 3:40 PM - 5:00 PM
Gold Room, 1131 Social Sciences and Humanities
We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroe- conomic models, knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contem- poraneous and news shocks to the prevailing policy rule is sufficient to construct counterfactuals under alternative policy rules. If the researcher is willing to pos- tulate a loss function, our results furthermore allow her to recover an optimal policy rule for that loss. Under our assumptions, the derived counterfactuals and optimal policies are robust to the Lucas critique. We then discuss strategies for applying these insights when only a limited amount of empirical causal evidence on policy shock transmission is available.
Subscribe to Upcoming Seminars
Individual seminar and workshop announcements are circulated via separate mailing lists. To subscribe, send an email to the relevant list:
- Click here to subscribe to the Departmental Seminars.
- Click here to subscribe to the Agricultural Economics Workshop.
- Click here to subscribe to the Development Workshop.
- Click here to subscribe to the Econometrics Seminars.
- Click here to subscribe to the Environmental and Resource Economics Workshop and the Environmental and Energy Economics Workshop.
Contact Us2116 Social Sciences and Humanities
University of California, Davis
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
Main Office: 530-752-1515
Student Advising Services: 530-754-9536
DeLoach Conference Room: 530-752-2916
Main Conference Room: 530-754-1850