Arman Rezaee, University of California, Davis
Forecasts: Consumption, Production, and Behavioral Responses
Date and Location
Tuesday, December 8, 2020, 4:10 PM - 5:30 PM
933 988 20491, online Zoom
Economic theory predicts forecasts are an important determinant of welfare. In developing countries, however, limited information and human capital may make it difficult for agents to produce accurate, precise forecasts. This plausibly limits the scope for optimal responses to uncertain future events. We study the effects on forecast consumption, production, and behavioral responses from two randomized interventions in Lahore, Pakistan: 1) provision of one-day ahead air pollution forecasts; and 2) general forecasting training aimed at reducing behavioral biases. On average, subjects exposed to forecasts were willing to pay roughly 60 percent of the cost of mobile internet access to continue receiving them. Both interventions reduced air pollution forecast error, and receipt of forecasts increased demand for protective masks. These results document substantial demand for forecasts among urban residents in the developing world. They suggest that modest educational interventions may durably improve forecasting-relevant human capital.
Subscribe to Upcoming Seminars
Individual seminar and workshop announcements are circulated via separate mailing lists. To subscribe, send an email to the relevant list:
- Click here to subscribe to the Departmental Seminars.
- Click here to subscribe to the Agricultural Economics Workshop.
- Click here to subscribe to the Development Workshop.
- Click here to subscribe to the Econometrics Seminars.
- Click here to subscribe to the Environmental and Resource Economics Workshop and the Environmental and Energy Economics Workshop.
Contact Us2116 Social Sciences and Humanities
University of California, Davis
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
Main Office: 530-752-1515
Student Advising Services: 530-754-9536
DeLoach Conference Room: 530-752-2916
Main Conference Room: 530-754-1850