Double-Cropping and Adaptation to Climate Change in the United States

• Agricultural Economics Workshop

Date and Location

Thursday, December 6, 2018, 4:10 PM - 5:30 PM
ARE Library Conference Room, 4101 Social Sciences and Humanities

Abstract

Climate change is projected to have large negative impacts on the yields of key crops in the US, largely channeled through increased exposure to heat during the growing season. Warming may also increase opportunities for double cropping by expanding the frost-free period. We use high-resolution land use data and regression analysis to explain farmers’ propensity to double-crop wheat with soybeans in the Eastern US. Critically, our approach uses county fixed effects to control for unobservable economic and agronomic factors. Our estimates imply that a 2.5◦C warming does not increase the prevalence of double-cropping, as decreases in double-cropping in warmer regions offset potential increases in cooler regions. A statistical model of county yields further indicates that yields of double-cropped soybeans are about 15% lower than those of single-cropped soybeans, an estimate consistent with agronomic research. In total, we find little evidence that double-cropping is likely to buffer the calorie impacts of warming on soy agriculture.