The Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Pollinator Density Change

• Agricultural Economics Workshop

Date and Location

Friday, October 16, 2015, 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
ARE Conference Room, 2102 Social Sciences and Humanities

Abstract

The notion that insect pollinator declines could have catastrophic consequences for food production and consumption is widespread. In fact, rising concerns over pollinator declines from the general public and policy makers have motivated policies to protect or increase pollinator abundance. These policies range from encouraging research to banning the use of pesticides deemed nefarious to bees.
Yet, the consequences of variations in pollinator abundance on food production and consumption remain poorly documented and quantified. We develop a market equilibrium displacement model for the 170 crops and 180 counties of the FAO dataset in order to estimate the welfare impact of changes in pollinator abundance on the consumers and producers of pollinator-dependent crops around the world. We account for substitution in demand and supply as well as international trade. We discuss the paucity of data on pollinators, provide extensive sensitivity analysis for our estimates, and show that uncertainty of the yield response to pollination services is the dominant source of uncertainty in welfare impact estimates.