UC Davis Agricultural and Resource Economics

Papers

Here, I list selected recent papers under four different topics: (i) Energy, (ii) Finance and Commodities, (iii) Agriculture, and (iv) Other.

For a complete list of my papers, see my CV or my Google scholar page

 

Energy


WORKING PAPER Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard (with Gabriel Lade and Cynthia Lin-Lawell), November 2016.

WORKING PAPER Making Good Climate Policy: Three Lessons from the Renewable Fuel Standard, June 2016.

WORKING PAPER The Incentive to Overinvest in Energy Efficiency: Evidence From Hourly Smart-Meter Data (with Kevin Novan), April 2016.

Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies (with Colin Carter and Gordon Rausser), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming, 2016.

WORKING PAPER Ex Post Costs and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Prices under the Renewable Fuel Standard (with Gabriel Lade and Cynthia Lin-Lawell), June 2015.

Cars on Crutches: How Much Abatement Do Smog Check Repairs Actually Provide? (with Pierre Mérel, Jeffrey Williams, and Emily Wimberger), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 67(3): 371-395, 2014.

Efficiency of the California Electricity Reserves Market, (with Konstantinos Metaxoglou), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(6): 1127-1144, 2007.

 

Finance and Commodities


Forecasting Stock Returns Using Option-Implied State Prices (with Konstantinos Metaxoglou), Journal of Financial Econometrics, forthcoming 2017

WORKING PAPER How Could We Have Been So Wrong? The Puzzle of Disappointing Returns to Commodity Investments (with Scott Main, Scott Irwin, and Dwight Sanders, November 2016)

WORKING PAPER Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic Tilting (with Konstantinos Metaxoglou and Davide Pettenuzzo, August 2016). Appendix.

WORKING PAPER Commodity Price Comovement and Financial Speculation: The Case of Cotton (with Joseph P. Janzen and Colin A. Carter, April 2016)

State Prices of Conditional Quantiles: New Evidence on Time Variation in the Pricing Kernel (with Konstantinos Metaxoglou), Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming, 2016. Appendix.

Futures Market Failure? (with Philip Garcia and Scott Irwin), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97(1):40-64, 2015, Appendix, Winner: AAEA Quality of Research Discovery Award  Summary in Amber Waves MagazineWinner: AAEA Quality of Communication Award

WORKING PAPER Prospectus Words, Parts of Speech, and Uncertainty in IPO Pricing (with Raymond P. H. Fishe and David North, September 2015)

Hedging and Speculative Trading in Agricultural Futures Markets (with Raymond Fishe and Joseph Janzen)American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(2):542-556, 2014. Winner: EAAE Quality of Research Discovery Award

Identifying Informed Traders in Futures Markets, (with Raymond P.H. Fishe), Journal of Financial Markets, 15(3):329-359, 2012. 
 
Commodity Booms and Busts, (with Colin Carter and Gordon Rausser), Annual Review of Resource Economics, 3: 87-118, 2011.
 
 
 

Agriculture


WORKING PAPER The Eff ects of the Premium Subsidies in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program on Crop Acreage (with Jisang Yu and Daniel Sumner, August 2016) 

WORKING PAPER Commodity Price Comovement and Financial Speculation: The Case of Cotton (with Joseph P. Janzen and Colin A. Carter, April 2016)

Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies (with Colin Carter and Gordon Rausser), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming, 2016.

The environmental effects of crop price increases: Nitrogen losses in the U.S. Corn Belt (with Nathan Hendricks, Sumathy Sinnathamby, Kyle Douglas-Mankin, Daniel Sumner, and Dietrich Earnhart), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68(3):507-526, 2014. Appendix

Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary? (with Nathan Hendricks and Joseph Janzen), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming, 2014.
 
 

Crop Supply Dynamics and the Illusion of Partial Adjustment, (with Nathan P. Hendricks and Daniel A. Sumner), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(5):1469-1491, 2014. Winner: AJAE Outstanding Paper Award

Hedging and Speculative Trading in Agricultural Futures Markets (with Raymond Fishe and Joseph Janzen)American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(2):542-556, 2014. Winner: EAAE Quality of Research Discovery Award

Does speculation cause high food prices? (a comment on "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC’s Daily Large Trader Data Files" by Nicole M. Aulerich, Scott H. Irwin, and Philip Garcia, prepared for NBER volume on "The Economics of Food Price Volatility", 2014)

Estimating the Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn, (with Colin Carter), Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(3): 522-533, 2007Winner: AAEA Quality of Research Discovery Award

 

Other


A Time Series Paradox: Unit Root Tests Perform Poorly When Data are Cointegrated (with W. Robert Reed), Economics Letters, 151:71-74, 2017
 
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, energy balance, and weight gain (with Joanna Parks and Julian Alston) Food Policy, 61, May 2016
 
Grouped Coefficients to Reduce Bias in Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Models with Small T (with Nathan Hendricks), Applied Economics, 47(40):4335-4348, 2015 appendix.
 
WORKING PAPER Quantifying Obesity in Economic Research: How Misleading is the Body Mass Index?  (with Joanna Parks and Julian Alston, January 2014)
 
Markov Breaks in Regression ModelsJournal of Time Series Econometrics, 4(1): Article 3, 2012. 
 

Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence, (with Prasad Naik and Chih-Ling Tsai), Journal of Econometrics, 134(2): 553-577, 2006. 

Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time SeriesJournal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23(3): 321-335, 2005.

Stochastic Permanent Breaks, (with Robert Engle), Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4): 553-574, 1999.

 

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